The MAIF announced it last month: it will limit the increase in car insurance rates to 2% in 2023. With other insurers, however, the increase should be more marked. Indeed, insurers have pledged to keep the increase in premiums below inflation, which could however leave them free to 5% increase., as anticipated by some forecasts. A few weeks before the end of the year, Assurland takes stock of the various tariff estimates and solutions for save your car budget.
Forecasts oscillating between +2 and +5%
How much will the increase be? This is now the only question policyholders are asking as the end of the year approaches and the various forecasts ticking away. Back in September, our IPAP (Individual Insurance Price Index, which manages 6 million rates) had predicted a 2.5% to 3% increase in auto insurance premiums.
More recently, at the beginning of November, it was the UFC-Que Choisir consumer association that warned of a price increase in 2023, quantified between +2% and +3%. Finally, it is up to the company Facts & Figures, specialized in the insurance and pension sector, to take the floor, announcing an even greater increase: between +3% and +5%.
If the price inflation forecasts therefore fluctuate between +2% and +5%, the reasons put forward by these various players are instead the same, with this certainty: car premiums will increase from January. Four main explanations are put forward: the concomitant increase in the number of accidents, the price of spare parts, the value of cars and natural disasters.
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More claims…
On the road accident front, after a year of calm in 2020 linked to the confinements, the loss ratio has risen well this year. According to data from the Interior Minister, the road deaths have increased by 25% in the last six months (compared to 2021) and by 3% compared to the first half of 2019 (which serves as a pre-health crisis reference). These rising figures therefore lead to an increase in compensation for insurers, which affects prices.
It should also be noted that in addition to car accidents, 2022 was also a historic year in terms of climate hazards (storms, floods, droughts, fires, etc.). However, these claims, which obviously affect home insurance premiums, can also affect vehicles: hence the natural disaster guarantee, present in many contracts. For the year 2023, the total damage bill is estimated at 1.3 billion euroscompared to 600 million euros and 2020 and 2021.
… and more expensive for the insurers
The number of claims is on the rise, but cars are also increasingly expensive to repair. According to SRA data, the price of spare parts shows +10% in the last twelve months, compared to 2.2% in 2021. Among these parts, for example, windshields have experienced a significant increase, related to the context of the war in Ukraine. Gas is in fact necessary for the production of glass, and all component producers are also penalized by the increase in energy and transport bills.
Finally, more structurally, the vehicles themselves are also proving increasingly expensive to buy. New on-board technologies are driving up the average price of cars, especially those equipped with new increasingly popular electric and hybrid motors, not to mention new safety devices (intelligent speed adapter, black box, etc.) in France, in the last ten years, the the average price of a vehicle thus increased from 20,000 to 27,000 euros (AAA data).
How to avoid inflation?
Taken together, these increases send insurers’ expenses skyrocketing. Exactly how auto premiums will rise in 2023 will depend on insurers and how they deliver on their promise to keep it below inflation. To counter the potential epidemic, policyholders have the opportunity to compete and benefit from the call prices offered to new customers, in particular through the Hamon law, which facilitates resolution.
Some insurers have already communicated their rates for 2023 and their willingness to apply a moderate increase. This is the case of MAIF, which will limit itself to a 2% price increase on its car contracts. To consult the prices of insurers for your profile for free, you can go through an online comparator.
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